The Weekly Market Sentiment Report: 21st April - 25th April 2025

The Weekly Market Sentiment Report: 21/04/2025 - 25/04/2025

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CONTENTS

• ECONOMIC CALENDAR

• MARKET SNAPSHOT

• UPCOMING PROJECTS

  • THE COT REPORT STRATEGY

  • THE PULSECAST SENTIMENT MODEL

  • THE GAMMA EXPOSURE INDEX

  • VIX

  • SECTOR ROTATION GRAPH

  • THE AAII INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY

  • THE CRYPTO RSI INDEX

  • BITCOIN FEAR & GREED INDEX

  • BITCOIN DOMINANCE CHART

  • MARKET STRESS INDICATOR

  • INFLATION RATE MID-TERM MODEL

• THE COT REPORT STRATEGY TRACK RECORD

• DISCLAIMER

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

An Economic Calendar is a tool used to track and display upcoming economic events, announcements, and indicators that are relevant to financial markets and the broader economy. The following shows what to expect for the coming week:

MARKET SNAPSHOT

The below table summarizes the weekly percentage changes of a few key markets:

This week, EURUSD moved around 0.31 % while equity markets shaped a -1.2 % move as evidenced by the S&P 500 index. Meanwhile, Bitcoin had a 0.9 % move. The safe haven proxy Gold shaped a 3.7 % move. On the fixed income part, Tnote-10 shaped a 1.3 % move. Lastly, Oil had a performance of 4.8 %.

UPCOMING PROJECTS

The following sections are in-progress and will only be added when security checks are performed:

💡A new section about individual U.S stocks: This will feature a number of U.S stocks with a few modern technical indicators and/or patterns in a summarized table/chart.

💡A new section about seasonality of markets through time: This will feature a type of averaging of a few key markets that will show the expected trajectory for each year. Larry Williams uses this in his reports.

💡A new section about non-linear global correlations: This will improve the correlation heatmap by adding non-linear correlation measures.

💡A revised section about the put-call ratio: This will improve the interpretability and visibility of the PCR model.

THE COT REPORT STRATEGY

The CFTC publishes statistics of the futures market on a weekly basis called the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report. The report features the number of futures contracts held by market participants (hedge funds, banks, producers, etc.). Two main categories in the COT report must be distinguished:

• Commercial players: They deal in the futures markets for hedging purposes (i.e. to cover their operations or other trading positions). Examples include agricultural giants. Their positions are negatively correlated with the underlying market.

• Non-commercial players: They deal in the futures markets for speculative reasons (i.e. to profit from their positions). Examples include hedge funds. Their positions are positively correlated with the underlying market.

The COT report strategy is the core of this report. It highlights the markets that are overbought or oversold with regards to sentiment.

The directional views are represented using the following standards:

⚡ This symbol represents a new tactical directional opportunity.

🔁 This symbol represents an on-going tactical directional opportunity.

✅ This symbol represents a recently closed tactical opportunity at a profit.

❌ This symbol represents a recently closed tactical opportunity at a loss.

⛓️‍💥 This symbol represents a neutralized opportunity before seeing its target due to conflicting technical elements (if the view is neutralized at a loss compared to its entry price, it will be considered as a loss and will have the loss symbol).

The following summarizes the state of the sentiment for currencies and securities:

The charts are not recommendations, they are just sentiment based opinions: