The Weekly Market Sentiment Report: 1st July - 5th July 2024
The Weekly Market Sentiment Report: 01/07/2024 - 05/07/2024
CONTENTS
EVOLUTION & NATURE OF THE REPORT
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
THE COT REPORT STRATEGY
PUT-CALL RATIO SENTIMENT INDEX
EQUITY SENTIMENT INDEX
EQUITY RSI SENTIMENT INDEX
EQUITY YEARLY MILESTONE INDEX
EURUSD SENTIMENT INDEX
EURUSD RSI SENTIMENT INDEX
THE ISM PURCHASING MANAGER’S INDEX (ISM PMI)
THE COT REPORT STRATEGY TRACK RECORD
CORRELATION HEATMAP
CLOSED OPPORTUNITIES
DISCLAIMER
EVOLUTION & NATURE OF THE REPORT
New sentiment models are constantly added while taking into account their overall utility. Feel free to leave a feedback (e.g. nature of the document, its usefulness, its time interval, its content, language, etc.).
The directional views are represented using the following convention and are followed by their charts:
⚡ This symbol represents a new directional opportunity.
🔁 This symbol represents an on-going directional opportunity.
✅ This symbol represents a recently closed opportunity at a profit.
❌ This symbol represents a recently closed opportunity at a loss.
The directional views presented must simply be used to help confirm the overall expected direction of the analyzed market. The support and resistance zones are not hard levels, they are merely areas of expected reactions (reversals), and hence for risk management purposes, you are advised to place your stops as you see fit. Naturally, when the market clearly breaks the reversal zone, the view is invalidated, however some noise may occur around it before we see a clear reaction.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
An economic calendar is a tool used in finance and economics to track and display upcoming economic events, announcements, and indicators that are relevant to the financial markets and the broader economy. The following shows what to expect for the coming week:
THE COT REPORT STRATEGY
The CFTC publishes statistics of the futures market on a weekly basis called the Commitment of traders (COT) report. The report has many valuable information inside, namely the number of futures contracts held by market participants (hedge funds, banks, producers of commodities, speculators, etc.).
💡 Relevant Information 💡
Two main categories in the COT report must be distinguished:
Commercial players: They deal in the futures markets for hedging purposes (i.e. to cover their operations or other trading positions). Examples of hedgers include investment banks and agricultural giants. Their positions are negatively correlated with the underlying market.
Non-commercial players: They deal in the futures markets for speculative reasons (i.e. to profit from their positions). Examples of speculators include hedge funds. Their positions are positively correlated with the underlying market.
The COT report strategy is the core of this report. It highlights the markets that are overbought or oversold with regards to sentiment.
The following table summarizes the current state of the sentiment for currencies and indices:
Make sure to remember that theses are not advices whatsoever, they are merely charts that fuse sentiment analysis with technical analysis:
⚡AUDCAD: Bearish reaction expected around 0.9170/0.9230 to 0.9000.
⚡GBPCHF: Bearish reaction expected around 1.1465/1.1520 to 1.1220.
⚡SPX: Bearish reaction expected around 5620/5820 to 5260.
⚡USDCHF: Bearish reaction expected around 0.9080/0.9120 to 0.8860.
🔁 GBPCAD: Bearish reaction expected around 1.7430/1.7515 to 1.7120.
Update: Maintaining the view with the same levels.
🔁 NZDMXN: Bullish reaction expected around 10.96/10.79 to 11.80.
Update: Maintaining the view with the same levels.
🔁 GBPNZD: Bearish reaction expected around 2.0800/2.0930 to 2.0400.
Update: Maintaining the view with the same levels.
🔁 GBPUSD: Bearish reaction expected around 1.2800/1.2875 to 1.2520.
Update: Maintaining the view with the same levels.
🔁 NIKKEI225: Bearish reaction expected around 39320/40000 to 36875.
Update: Maintaining the view with the same levels.
