The Weekly Market Sentiment Report: 10th February - 14th February 2025

The Weekly Market Sentiment Report: 10/02/2025 - 14/02/2025

CONTENTS

• EVOLUTION & NATURE OF THE REPORT

• ECONOMIC CALENDAR

• MARKET SNAPSHOT

• SPOTLIGHT

  • THE COT REPORT STRATEGY

  • PUT-CALL RATIO SENTIMENT INDEX

  • THE GAMMA EXPOSURE INDEX

  • THE MOVING AVERAGE PERCENTAGE INDEX

  • THE RSI PERCENTAGE INDEX

  • EQUITY YEARLY MILESTONE INDEX

  • THE S&P 500 VOLATILITY BAND INDEX

  • VOLATILITY INDICES

  • IMPLIED CORRELATION INDEX

  • BOFA HIGH YIELD INDEX

  • INFLATION RATE MID-TERM MODEL

  • THE CRYPTO RSI INDEX

  • BITCOIN FEAR & GREED INDEX

  • BITCOIN DOMINANCE CHART 🆕

  • THE AAII INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY

  • THE ISM PURCHASING MANAGER’S INDEX (ISM PMI)

• THE COT REPORT STRATEGY TRACK RECORD

• CORRELATION HEATMAP

• CLOSED OPPORTUNITIES

• DISCLAIMER

EVOLUTION & NATURE OF THE REPORT

New sentiment models are constantly added while taking into account their overall utility. Feel free to leave a feedback (e.g. nature of the document, its usefulness, its time interval, its content, language, etc.).

The directional views are represented using the following convention and are followed by their charts:

⚡ This symbol represents a new tactical directional opportunity.

🔁 This symbol represents an on-going tactical directional opportunity.

✅ This symbol represents a recently closed tactical opportunity at a profit.

❌ This symbol represents a recently closed tactical opportunity at a loss.

⛓️‍💥 This symbol represents a neutralized opportunity before seeing its target due to new conflicting technical elements (if the view is neutralized at a loss compared to its entry price, it will be considered as a loss and will have the symbol from the previous step).

The directional views presented must simply be used to help confirm the overall expected direction of the analyzed market. The support and resistance zones are not hard levels, they are merely areas of expected reactions (reversals), and hence for risk management purposes, you are advised to place your stops as you see fit. Some noise may occur around the support and resistance levels.

If you want to see more explanatory details on the report, you can refer to the following post:

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

An economic calendar is a tool used in finance and economics to track and display upcoming economic events, announcements, and indicators that are relevant to the financial markets and the broader economy. The following shows what to expect for the coming week:

MARKET SNAPSHOT

The below table summarizes the weekly percentage changes of the key markets:

This week, EURUSD moved around -0.34 % while equity markets shaped a -0.28 % move as evidenced by the S&P 500 index. Meanwhile, Bitcoin had a -1.19 % move. The safe haven proxy Gold shaped a 2.62 % move. On the fixed income part, Tnote-10 shaped a 0.29 % move. Lastly, oil had a performance of -2.03 %.

SPOTLIGHT

The following points summarize the key ideas you need to know for the report:

🗞️ The S&P 500 Volatility Band Index has been updated with the addition of the bearish component.

🗞️ Elements are arguing for a push-down on EURUSD. This is confirmed by the Moving Average Index and the RSI Index.

🗞️ BTCUSD is still bullish considering the Fear & Greed Index’s U-turn. Additionally, the Crypto RSI Index is showing a major bullish signal.

🗞️ New opportunities on MSCI EM Index, Platinum, Silver, and US Bonds.

💡On-going project: A new section about individual US stocks.

💡On-going project: A new section about a global volatility (stress) indicator on different markets.

💡On-going project: A small tweak in the COT Report Strategy with the aim of increasing the frequency of signals.

THE COT REPORT STRATEGY

The CFTC publishes statistics of the futures market on a weekly basis called the Commitment of traders (COT) report. The report has many valuable information inside, namely the number of futures contracts held by market participants (hedge funds, banks, producers of commodities, speculators, etc.). Two main categories in the COT report must be distinguished:

• Commercial players: They deal in the futures markets for hedging purposes (i.e. to cover their operations or other trading positions). Examples of hedgers include investment banks and agricultural giants. Their positions are negatively correlated with the underlying market.

• Non-commercial players: They deal in the futures markets for speculative reasons (i.e. to profit from their positions). Examples of speculators include hedge funds. Their positions are positively correlated with the underlying market.

The COT report strategy is the core of this report. It highlights the markets that are overbought or oversold with regards to sentiment. The following table summarizes the current state of the sentiment for currencies and indices:

Make sure to remember that theses are not advices whatsoever, they are merely charts that fuse sentiment analysis with technical analysis: